Virginia nonprofit’s poll memo casts Dusty Johnson as fading in South Dakota GOP governor race | Race Lab Signals
A poll conducted by Meeting Street Insights and released by Conservative Agenda for America shows a four-way statistical tie, but its sharper warning about Johnson raises questions.
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By Todd Epp, Northern Plains News
A Virginia-based conservative nonprofit is circulating a late South Dakota Republican governor’s race poll memo that shows all four major candidates within the margin of error, while framing U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson as the candidate losing ground.
The May 22 memo from Conservative Agenda for America (available below) says Meeting Street Insights surveyed 450 likely Republican primary voters from May 18-20. The memo reports Gov. Larry Rhoden at 23 percent, businessman Toby Doeden at 22 percent, House Speaker Jon Hansen at 21 percent and Johnson at 19 percent, with 15 percent undecided. The survey’s stated margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
That means the ballot test shows a statistical tie. But the memo’s political message goes further. It says Johnson is “trending in the wrong direction,” while arguing Rhoden has an advantage heading into the final stretch. South Dakota’s primary is June 2, and absentee voting began April 17, according to the South Dakota Secretary of State’s office.
Johnson takes the hardest hit
The memo says Johnson’s image rating among likely Republican primary voters is 38 percent favorable and 53 percent unfavorable, or 15 points underwater. It also says 36 percent of voters view him “strongly unfavorably,” the highest strongly unfavorable rating in the field.
The memo says 97 percent of likely Republican primary voters know who Johnson is and 90 percent recently saw, read or heard something about his governor campaign. Of those voters, 16 percent said they were more favorable toward him, while 51 percent said they were less favorable.
Rhoden had the strongest image rating in the memo, at 53 percent favorable and 30 percent unfavorable, or 23 points positive. Hansen was 39 percent favorable and 22 percent unfavorable, or 17 points positive. Doeden was 37 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable, or 3 points negative.
Rhoden also led on second choice. The memo says 26 percent of likely Republican primary voters named Rhoden as their second choice, followed by Hansen at 18 percent, Doeden at 12 percent and Johnson at 11 percent. Among voters who rated their interest in the election a 10 on a 10-point scale, Rhoden, Doeden and Hansen each drew 23 percent, while Johnson drew 17 percent.
Source of poll matters
The memo does not say who paid for the survey beyond its release by Conservative Agenda for America.
ProPublica’s Nonprofit Explorer lists Conservative Agenda for America as a Sterling, Virginia-based 501(c)(4) nonprofit with EIN 92-2516860. ProPublica’s IRS-linked data says the group reported $14.17 million in revenue and $18.36 million in expenses for the fiscal year ending in September 2024. ProPublica also says the group is not listed in the IRS’s most recent tax-exempt organization list, a point that should be read as a caution about its current IRS listing, not proof by itself that the organization lacks tax-exempt status.
A 501(c)(4) nonprofit may engage in political advocacy, but generally does not have to publicly disclose its donors. That makes the source of late-race polling important for voters trying to judge who benefits from the message.
Meeting Street’s public website describes founder Rob Autry as a pollster and research strategist who has conducted more than 7,500 surveys and 500 focus groups. The firm says its team has worked with public policy organizations and congressional campaigns, including candidates who won Democrat-held districts.
A different recent poll and analysis shows Doeden in the lead.
What the poll does not show
The poll should not be read as proof that Rhoden leads or that Johnson is collapsing. The four candidates are separated by four points, which falls inside the poll’s stated margin of error. The memo also does not include the full questionnaire, weighting, sample source, crosstabs or exact wording of questions that produced the image and campaign-information findings.
The numbers show a close race. The memo gives that close race a sharper meaning: Rhoden is positioned to close, and Johnson is vulnerable.
Sourcing/mission note: This story is based on a May 22 polling memo circulated by Conservative Agenda for America, IRS-linked nonprofit records available through ProPublica, Meeting Street’s public website and South Dakota election information from the Secretary of State’s office. Northern Plains News covers political money and campaign messaging because voters deserve to know who is trying to shape a race before they cast a ballot.
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As Attorney General Jackley advocated, I’m encouraging all Democrats and Independents to register as Republicans so they can vote in this primary—it’s time to wrench the Republican nominee away from the extreme arm of the party. As we all reel from the impact of the MAGA/Project 2025 agenda and the steady parade of incompetent appointees of the current regime, it’s time to choose a different path. No to the extremism of Hansen and Doeden and the status quo of Dusty who voted to support all of the policies of the current regime, illegal tariffs, unconstitutional wars, all contributing to a crushing cost of living increase for all Americans. No, Larry isn’t perfect, but he’s honest, listens, and thus is more palatable than the other candidates.